Mario Nawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are two potential escalation windows in the Iran war. The first is October. If Washington expects a major Iranian move, Trump could try to preempt it and seize the initiative before the midterms. But what comes afterward is even more concerning. “𝘍𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯... 𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘥𝘢𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘴𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘯 𝘪𝘯... 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘮𝘢𝘹𝘪𝘮𝘶𝘮 𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶’𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘦-𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦.” Once the election is over, Trump temporarily loses one of the strongest political constraints on escalation. Everyone is watching the midterms as a possible turning point. The 5 or 6 weeks immediately after them may matter even more. @WeTheBrandon

🇷🇸 Serbia is getting into the combat drone business and Vučić isn’t exactly being subtle about what they can do. The Serbian president inaugurated a new factory producing Israeli-designed drones for the Serbian military and export. His description? They can “go through windows and chase the opponent.” And this is apparently just the beginning, Vučić says Serbia plans to build at least three more factories. The drone arms race is already here. Writer: Lynn t.co/hbqz7RPKaM

🇨🇳🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia is reportedly running low on interceptors and looking abroad for air-defense support while simultaneously pursuing diplomacy with the Houthis. And China's quietly gaining leverage from the situation. With Beijing dependent on Saudi crude and reportedly involved in de-escalation efforts, he speculates that Pakistan’s talk of potentially invoking the Mecca defense agreement could be part of a broader pressure campaign on the Houthis. But the larger shift is diplomatic. “𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘜𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘦 𝘚𝘢𝘮.” If Beijing increasingly becomes the power Gulf states call when Washington either cannot or will not solve the problem, the consequences could extend far beyond Yemen. @WeTheBrandon

“No service” is getting a lot harder to find, even in Panama. Starlink direct-to-cell is coming to harder-to-reach parts of Panama with +Móvil, where normal mobile coverage runs out. The map gets bigger without building a tower on every corner. @Starlink @SpaceX / Writer: Annette, Grok Imagine Designer: Janné

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Recent reports suggest U.S. escort operations through Hormuz are proving more effective than many expected. But there's a clock running underneath that success. Keeping warships continuously deployed delays maintenance, wears down crews and aircraft, and eventually leaves fewer ships ready to replace them. One admiral calls it the Navy’s “readiness bathtub”: operational availability today is effectively borrowed from tomorrow. The U.S. may be solving the immediate Hormuz problem. The bill could arrive in the 2027-28 fleet. @WeTheBrandon

🇧🇪 A Belgian MP went to the bathroom at Parliament and didn’t come out for 13 HOURS. MP Franky Demon reportedly got trapped after the lock broke, and things got worse when the building’s fresh-air ventilation shut off overnight. He was finally freed the next morning and taken to hospital. Imagine surviving Belgian politics only to be taken out by the bathroom lock. Writer: Lynn t.co/IT8AAePmoX

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Ana Kasparian says her experience covering Covid fundamentally changed how she approaches controversial issues. “𝘐 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘰 𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘥... 𝘐 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘰 𝘸𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘊𝘰𝘷𝘪𝘥. 𝘐 𝘵𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺.” She says staying inside a left-wing media bubble left her without the broader perspective she needed, and that mistakes she made on air still shape how she works today. That experience is also why Kasparian says she actively seeks debates with people who disagree with her criticism of Israel. “𝘐 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘮𝘦 𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘐𝘴𝘳𝘢𝘦𝘭.” For Ana, getting burned by certainty once was enough. Now she considers challenging her own conclusions part of the job. @AnaKasparian

This was made with AI, but what would you do if you went to see a horror movie and this actually happened? Writer: Sol t.co/9UBNNEY55i

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Asked what might motivate Robert Kraft’s position on pro-Palestinian speech, Ana Kasparian refuses to psychoanalyze him. “𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦, 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘩𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘵. 𝘈𝘭𝘭 𝘐 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘫𝘶𝘥𝘨𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴.” The more important question she says isn’t what Kraft privately believes, but what his public actions actually support. It’s a useful distinction in a debate increasingly consumed by assumptions about people’s motives. Motives require speculation. Actions leave a record. @AnaKasparian

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi is denying that his forces tried to target Mecca. He calls the accusation one of the “ugliest propaganda lies” against the Houthis and insists no rational person in the Muslim world would believe it. That’s in response to Saudi Arabia saying it shot down a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it reached the holy city’s restricted airspace. Writer: Daniyal t.co/TcjwM51wSE

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Ana Kasparian rejects attempts to separate violent extremist settlers from the broader settlement issue in the occupied West Bank. “𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘻𝘦 𝘗𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘭.” The conversation then raises a darker possibility: whether escalating settler violence could eventually provoke a major Palestinian attack, creating the political conditions for a much larger Israeli military response. Ana is more cautious on that theory, saying she would need to know far more about Palestinian armed capabilities in the West Bank before judging its plausibility. The violence is documented. The theory about where it leads remains just that: a theory. @AnaKasparian

🇺🇸 San Diego coyotes form a boy band called The Howl Street Boys, drop one verse, terrify an entire block, then walk off like legends. Writer: Daniyal t.co/NOnFkJ0Twm

🇺🇸 Trump says the new Farm Bill is moving forward after clearing its first Senate hurdle 12-11 along party lines. He is promising farmers and ranchers “much needed Dollar Assistance” and says Republicans will push the final bill through. The politics are predictable. What rural America will be watching is much simpler: how much money actually shows up, who gets it, and when. Source: @realDonaldTrump / Writer: Oli

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington has sanctioned Iranian crypto exchange BitBank, saying it processed payments tied to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and transferred hundreds of millions of dollars to the IRGC. Treasury says BitBank sits at the center of Iran’s digital sanctions-evasion infrastructure and was used to move payments connected to the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority. The exchange is controlled by Babak Zanjani, a longtime sanctions-evasion figure whose death sentence in Iran was later reduced. The interesting part is the plumbing. The battle over Hormuz is not just ships, missiles and insurance anymore. It now runs through crypto rails too. Source: U.S. Treasury, Investing .com, Reuters / Writer: Oliver

🇮🇱 Netanyahu: “𝘐 𝘢𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘩 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘐 𝘢𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨. 𝘈 𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘦𝘥. 𝘐 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘦𝘥.” Alright folks, we can relax. Bibi's neither the monarch nor the Messiah. Israeli politics remains completely normal. 😐 Writer: Oli t.co/McernU6BGw

🇬🇧 A 14-year sentence for raping two 14-year-old girls is sparking outrage in the UK. Afghan national Sultani Bakatash has been convicted of raping both girls and other sexual offences in Bolton. Police say he groomed one of the girls online before luring her and her friend to his flat. It should be life behind bars. Writer: Lynn t.co/YCuidNi7Ei

🇮🇱🇺🇸 Netanyahu says Israel needs to actively shape American public opinion to preserve and expand U.S. support. “𝘞𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮, 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢, 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘴.” The remarkable part is how openly he says it. Influence the audience, influence the media environment, "preserve" the alliance... Writer: Oliver t.co/QK1mAA8G67

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Netanyahu made regime change in Iran his top priority. He says the mission now is to “bring down the Iranian regime,” calling it both his personal mission and Israel’s top objective. Netanyahu has the mission. Washington apparently gets the implementation phase. Writer: Sol t.co/VTmrUrgAKg

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Netanyahu says Israel’s attack on Iran may have saved the country itself. He says Israel acted just in time, claiming that without the attack, there might not have been a State of Israel today. Netanyahu is defending the decision with the biggest possible counterfactual: Israel might otherwise not be here. Writer: Daniyal t.co/d5NIf4PwcH

🇺🇸 Ana Kasparian: “𝘐 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘰 𝘸𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘊𝘖𝘝𝘐𝘋” Ana says one of the biggest changes in her politics came from realizing how badly she had failed at something more basic: Questioning herself. “𝘐 𝘵𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘐 𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵. 𝘐𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘨 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦.” Between 2020 and 2022 she stayed inside a left-wing media bubble, failed to seek out competing perspectives and became far too certain that her own side had the facts right. She says she still beats herself up over mistakes she made on air during that period. But the more interesting part is what she says changed afterward. Her media diet widened. She began deliberately seeking debates with people she disagrees with. And she now tries to continually ask herself whether she might be wrong, rather than treating disagreement as proof the other person is malicious or stupid. That is also how she explains something that would have sounded almost absurd 5 years ago: Ana Kasparian now likes Tucker Carlson. She still disagrees with him on plenty, and even criticizes him in this interview for failing to challenge false claims from a guest. But she says she values his willingness to admit past mistakes and believes they can disagree in good faith. There are plenty of people in media willing to explain why everyone else was wrong. Admitting you were one of them is considerably rarer. @AnaKasparian

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Netanyahu on Iran: “𝘞𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘶𝘮𝘰𝘳, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘦. 𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘶𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩.” That is a striking way to describe Israel’s approach to the region: not a war with a defined endpoint, but a permanent search for the next threat to cut out. Writer: Oliver t.co/zuuaKQinds

The speed is insane 🤯 Writer: Sol t.co/0CGM21p4vo

🇮🇷 Iran is flexing its gasoline production as fears of a global shortage grow. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad says the country no longer needs gasoline imports and has already increased domestic output. He says the new Persian Gulf Mehr Refinery should be fully operational by the end of the year, adding even more production capacity. While everyone else worries about supply, Iran says it’s preparing to pump out more. Writer: Sol t.co/5OV24FRTo5

For some people with disabilities, Tesla's FSD is a lot more than a cool feature. It can mean getting to work, visiting family or just going where you need to go without relying on conventional steering. That kind of independence is hard to put a price on. Sometimes the biggest upgrade is simply getting more of your independence back. @Tesla / Writer: Annette, Grok Imagine Designer: Janné

🇺🇸🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is getting the jet Washington swore only Israel could fly in the Middle East. The State Department has approved a possible $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35s to the kingdom, its first ever, along with 49 Pratt & Whitney engines, comms gear, spare parts and support, and Congress has been formally notified. Israel has been the only country in the region flying the F-35, protected by a U.S. law that requires Washington to keep Israel's military edge over its neighbors. The State Department insists the sale won't change the military balance in the region. U.S. intelligence has a different worry, warning that China could get its hands on F-35 secrets through Saudi Arabia's defense ties with Beijing. Riyadh still doesn't have formal relations with Israel, and now it's buying the same stealth fighter. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸 U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright with maybe the most reasonable take on AI lately: "𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘶𝘭 𝘵𝘰𝘰𝘭, 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵. 𝘚𝘰 𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦’𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦-𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘦 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴." AI may be the first technology whose sales pitch and warning label are being written at the same time. Writer: Oliver t.co/xPjixXIaZl

🚨🇺🇸 An F-16 has crashed in Blair Township, Michigan. Reports indicate the pilot was able to eject safely. The cause of the crash is still unknown. Writer: Sol t.co/lnVo91EsYj

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ian Bremmer’s biggest concern in the Iran war is command and control. Washington and Tehran may both want to contain the conflict. That doesn’t mean every decision remains under their control. “𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘶𝘱 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘥, 𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘯 𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯?” Bremmer points to softer targets such as a major Gulf desalination plant. One mistaken strike could cause mass panic and force political leaders into a response they never intended. The longer the war runs, the more opportunities there are for one decision far below the top to become the decision that changes the entire war. @ianbremmer

🇩🇪 Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls antisemitism the worst form of xenophobia Germany can face given its history. He never thought Jewish people would again become targets of attacks from parts of German society. For Merz, the line is clear: Germany cannot tolerate antisemitic hatred or crimes committed by foreigners. Writer: Daniyal t.co/yuiKYHVwgS

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump and Vance have repeatedly suggested the Iran war could end after the midterms. Ian Bremmer doesn’t think that reflects some hidden diplomatic breakthrough. His argument: promising an endpoint after November pushes the reckoning beyond an election increasingly shaped by high fuel prices and a war now stretching beyond six months. Bremmer also sees a deeper political danger for Trump: part of his appeal was precisely that he would keep America out of another prolonged Middle Eastern war. The awkward question is no longer why it hasn’t ended. It’s what actually changes the morning after the midterms. @ianbremmer