Mario Nawfal

🇸🇦 🇾🇪 Shipping one barrel of oil across the world now costs $30... and it has shattered the global oil market. Rory Johnston says the Houthis hit Riyadh's airport on the very day oil's top leaders were flying in for the World Petroleum Congress, and now every refinery and loading terminal on the Saudi Red Sea coast sits square in the bull's eye. Moving a barrel used to cost a couple of bucks: "Now that same journey is $30 a barrel, and you've effectively shattered the global oil market into a dozen regional oil markets." Until shipping gets cheap again, one region drowns in oil while the next one runs dry. @Rory_Johnston

🇧🇷Have you EVER seen momentum like this at a rally? Crowds turned out in hordes for Flávio to close out the night as he edges ahead of Lula heading into this tight runoff. I feel the political tide changing and everyone is lining up for a fresh start. Writer: Bri t.co/B2UxTmPOWM

Trump is bragging that welfare is at its lowest level in decades, and on paper he’s right, as SNAP enrollment has fallen by nearly 6 million people since he took office Credit where it’s due… He’s not wrong that the system needed cleaning up, and the the crackdown on waste and fraud in these programs was long overdue The problem is timing Prices haven’t come down since he took office, so a lot of those families didn’t move up, they just lost help right when a week of groceries got more expensive Ask any food bank how the last six months have gone… That’s the storm that could help turn the midterms into a BLOODBATH for Republicans, followed by two VERY hard years for Trump

🚨Bitcoin CRASHED below $81K and Ethereum below $2,400, wiping out $350M in longs in just 10 minutes Leveraged longs got flushed. These dumps keep hitting when inflation runs hot and leverage piles up. One liquidation wave can drag the entire market lower in minutes. Dip buyers finally got their chance. Source: The Block / Writer: Lucas

🇮🇷 Roughly 1 in 20 ships crossing Hormuz are getting hit... and the oil still pays enough to cover a lost tanker. Rory Johnston says that in March and April, oil on one side of the strait was worth over $100 a barrel more than on the other, which eventually pulled in smugglers and dark transits. The margins are thinner now but still cover the worst case: "If you're making $20, $30 a barrel on shipping through the strait, you can lose a ship and you can still make money." The catch is the world is running out of tankers to lose, so the crisis keeps hopping from crude to diesel to shipping. @Rory_Johnston

🚨🇺🇸 Trump admitting he avoids handsome men tells you everything about his ego He needs a whole crowd tickling his vanity non stop because he genuinely believes he is the sexiest man alive. Keep dreaming… Writer: Bri t.co/xoNOoxkfLh

🚨🇺🇸 Trump just told Montana it’s getting a new “super range” for hypersonic missiles and autonomous weapons The most private people in America just found out they’re getting the LOUDEST neighbor imaginable: “Technologies including potential Autonomous weapons, space, and electronic warfare technology, supersonics and hypersonics.” Montanans moved there for the peace, quiet and elk season… now they’re going to be dodging robot weapons on the way to flyfishing🤣 Writer: Lucas, Daniel t.co/V9Em3oiaYB

🇺🇸 Joe Rogan says Trump voters feel completely BETRAYED by his disastrous war of choice in Iran. Trump campaigned REPEATEDLY on a promise of NO NEW WARS, mocking past administrations for their endless foreign conflicts. Well now he's the one dragging America into a giant quagmire with zero exit strategy! Rogan and pro-Israel guest Michael Douglas both agreed Trump got played by Israel's lie that taking out top Iranian leaders would be a quick win, only for it to blow up in America's face. Rogan warned Trump has f***ed up enough to hand the White House right back to the Democrats… Source: Fox News / Writer: Bri

🇧🇷 Flávio Bolsonaro opens the Brazilian presidential runoff with a CLEAR edge over Lula. Quaest has Flavio at 46% and Lula at 44%. The margin of error is 2 points, so it is still a technical tie. Blank and null votes are at 9%. This is the first survey after the first round, when Flávio finished ahead. The candidates who finished behind Lula were mostly on the right. Their voters have little reason to move to the left and a clear path to Flávio. The runoff is October 25th, and most voters already say their choice is locked in🔥 Source: Reuters / Writer: Lucas

🚨🇮🇷 26 ship attacks in two weeks started right after Iran's top officials flew home from the UN Rory Johnston, the oil analyst behind Commodity Context, says Hormuz had climbed back to just over 17 million barrels a day in late September. Flows are now down to between 11 and 14 million, and the strikes have moved out of the Gulf and into the strait itself. He suspects the timing was no accident: "So it would make sense for them to wait until they are back safe home to engage in this escalation." If Iran can switch the strait on and off around its own travel plans, who's really running Hormuz? @Rory_Johnston

🚨🇺🇸 Trump claims inflation is down to 1.7%… That is just not true. Actual inflation is more than DOUBLE that, sitting at 3.7% in Sept according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is up from 3.4% the previous month, heavily driven by spiking energy costs and the ongoing Iran war. He is simply pulling numbers out of thin air! Writer: Bri t.co/yQDeiscqpa

🇺🇸 8 ADULTS arrested in Kentucky for CHILD SEX TRAFFICKING and abuse Richmond police pulled 7 kids, ages 1 to 17, out of a HOUSE OF HORROR. The charges include human trafficking, first-degree rape, incest, and criminal abuse. Bonds run from $50,000 to $125,000. Court papers describe feces and urine smeared on the floors and stairs, insects, and more than 10 dogs inside. All 8 face a judge on October 21st. The kids are with social services. LOCK THEM UP FOREVER! Source: NBC News / Writer: Lucas

🚨🇮🇷 Iran threatens the DEATH PENALTY for owning a Starlink dish, and warns it may cut power to the whole country just to stop the next uprising Tehran’s cyberspace chief called Elon's satellite internet a “tool of war” this week and bragged that Iran has “several systems” for cutting off terminals, which it will share with friendly regimes. Six months to two years for using one, up to five for distributing them, and death if the charge gets upgraded to espionage. The deputy technology minister said what he’s really afraid of. Starlink doesn’t need Iran’s network, so it’s “the last nail in the coffin” of state control, and in the next crisis “we will have to cut electricity.” Remember why. In January the regime shut off the entire internet and killed more than thousands of protesters. The videos showing the extent of the brutality, only reached the world because Iranians with smuggled dishes uploaded them while security forces raided apartment buildings hunting for rooftops with @Starlink. SpaceX went a step further and made the service free for Iran. Without those terminals and the people risking prison to use them, the world might still be guessing at how many died and how bad it really got. The dark truth... A government that treats internet access as an act of war is telling you exactly how afraid it is of its own citizens and of the truth getting out. Source: Al Jazeera @elonmusk / Writer: Daniel

🇧🇷 Porto Alegre is electric tonight! Flávio packs the square while leading against Lula in the presidential runoff. Brazil is waking up!!! Writer: Bri t.co/Obexi6ug9O

🚨🇺🇸 Trump says welfare is at its lowest levels in many decades. In some areas he's not wrong at all. SNAP participation just hit a 17-year low, and welfare spending as % of GDP is near multi-decade lows after the pandemic drop. However, Medicaid, the single largest means-tested welfare program has grown to record-high spending levels, costing taxpayers nearly a trillion. So yes, its down but you have to ignore the really expensive half… Writer: Bri t.co/EMuKSyn17X

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says Iran's main request is that America PLEASE ALLOW THEM TO LIVE 💀 He told a rally that Iran's top leaders, their replacements, and half the next group are gone, so he is not even sure who is left to negotiate with. He also said he should have left some leaders in place so there would be someone to talk to. The main thing they asked for, and he did the opposite. Damn 😬 Writer: Lucas t.co/hdj9dDrb8o

🚨🇺🇸 Talarico tried to hide behind his faith by claiming the Bible is SILENT ON ABORTION A voter asked how he can protect the most innocent if he will not protect the unborn. Talarico immediately dodged, claiming abortion should be treated as public health instead of a culture war and insisting policy should just focus on reducing unwanted pregnancies. The word abortion is not in the text, but the unborn are. He has said the same thing before, but the Old Book proves him wrong. Writer: Lucas t.co/f2xoKmYc7t

🇺🇸Even Fox News can't hide their skepticism of the Trump effect ahead of crucial midterms. Republicans are completely UNDERWATER on foreign policy, gas prices, and inflation, with Democrats holding significant leads on all three areas. Trump’s approval rating has plunged to a RECORD LOW 36%, with a staggering 64% DISAPPROVAL and support actively shrinking inside his own party. The president is currently jet-setting across the country on a midterm campaign blitz, strutting around like he’s top dog coming to save the GOP. But when Fox News starts asking if Trump is sinking the entire party, you know the panic is real. Writer: Bri t.co/HwcBjtzG2v

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran's anti-ship missiles pushed the US fleet so far from Hormuz that it now sits inside Houthi range... and the Houthis just reportedly downed a Saudi fighter One Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile strike weeks ago was enough to push the Navy back into the Arabian Sea, which is exactly where Yemen's launchers can reach it. Retired Green Beret Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar calls the southern Gulf of Oman and Gulf of Aden a textbook engagement area, show teeth on one route, soft belly on the other, and the supply line now runs all the way from South Korea through Diego Garcia: "You're not necessarily going to sink an aircraft carrier, but you might damage one significantly." The reported Typhoon shootdown over Saada likely came from an SA-6, the same system that locked onto a US F-16 during Rough Rider, so the next round puts American pilots and amphibs in the same crosshairs the Saudis are already in. @WeTheBrandon

🇹🇷 A ROAD in Istanbul, Turkey, literally SPLIT IN TWO after the rain 💀 Police blocked the boulevard so cars wouldn't fall in, and crews showed up with an excavator while traffic locked up across the city. Schools are closed tomorrow. The governor is telling people to stay home. Writer: Lucas t.co/1aRiLPfe2f

🇾🇪🇸🇦 If the Houthis push into Saudi Arabia they reopen a 1,400-year-old war over who guards Mecca... and that is the one fight they can't win A Houthi raid on Jizan or Najran, blow up a refinery and drive home, and the region shrugs. Malcolm Nance, former Navy intelligence, says the first Islamic civil war restarts the moment a Shia force on Saudi soil stays and starts claiming the two holy mosques, because 85% of the Muslim world answers with jihad: "This is where they would overplay their hand and they would end the Houthis." He still calls this existential for the kingdom, since MBS built an army to stop coups instead of wars, and his warning is that Riyadh either fights or kisses Iran's ring for every drop of oil it exports. @MalcolmNance @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Daily news recap: Trump announced a Russia Ukraine energy ceasefire... and Russia kept hitting Ukraine's power grid anyway. Zelensky says he never saw the deal and that Russia broke it, Moscow's state media says the truce was never spelled out, and Ukraine has reportedly hit Russian refineries in return. Ukraine is also catching the blame for high diesel prices, which doesn't add up: "That is not the reason we have high diesel prices. It is entirely because, or mostly because of the war in Iran." Until the Iran war winds down, no truce in Ukraine is going to bring diesel back to earth. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸 Feds RAID Rep. Ilhan Omar’s D.C. home and SEIZE her phone Agents searched her D.C. home, taking her phone and serving over a DOZEN SUBPOENAS to her family. The target? Questions over her 1995 immigration paperwork, specifically whether her age was listed incorrectly on refugee forms filed by her late father three decades ago. Coming just weeks before the midterms, Omar called the search an “attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement.” Source: Fox News, The Guardian / Writer: Bri

🚨🇺🇸 A Pennsylvania mom allegedly drained her husband’s 401(k) to fund a three-week Great Wolf Lodge trip, then killed him and their 3-year-old son there Her stepmother says the vacation was billed as an early Christmas present for little Tristan, and she now believes Metallica Rose Harrison planned the killings in advance. The day before, she video-called her family and told them she loved them like nothing was wrong America keeps getting the same horror story with different names: smiling Facebook photos, a cheerful last phone call, then a parent and the children who trusted them most. “We had no idea” can’t keep being the end of the conversation. Source: New York Post / Writer: Daniel

🇺🇸 This NBC host CORNERED El-Sayed about his own stepsister who posted about his family ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, and he ERUPTED: "Are you insinuating that somehow I was lying?!" His own sister wrote that the family has long been part of the Muslim Brotherhood and that relatives were jailed for it. He called the posts hearsay and said he never talked to his mother about any of it. If your own family admits the connection is worse than someone else suggesting it, dude. Writer: Lucas t.co/Sn0MoYrZe8

🇺🇸 25 years later, another 9/11 victim has been IDENTIFIED using genetic genealogy. The woman was killed when the Twin Towers collapsed. Her name is not being released at the family’s request. Investigators matched her DNA against public ancestry databases. This is only the second time the method has worked on a World Trade Center victim. More than 1,000 people are still unidentified. Source: NYP / Writer: Lucas

🇮🇶 🇮🇷 🇧🇭 🇰🇼 Daily news recap: Iraq's biggest pro Iran militia is demanding Baghdad pick a side if US and Israeli jets use Iraqi skies to hit Iran. Kataib Hezbollah has already warned it will target hostile aircraft over Iraq, and it's being blamed for attacks on Saudi Arabia, including the East West pipeline. Iran has reportedly threatened ground incursions into the Gulf if the war restarts, with Bahrain and Kuwait floated as targets: "I no longer believe it's impossible or improbable that the Iranians are going to do something like a land invasion using their proxies." Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, so what happens to American sailors if Iran's proxies move on it? @WeTheBrandon

🇷🇺🇸🇾 Moscow is still shielding Bashar al-Assad with permanent political asylum on 'humanitarian grounds'… Humanitarian grounds…is that a f*king joke?! Giving humanitarian shelter to a dictator who allegedly gassed his own citizens and slaughtered hundreds of thousands of civilians is the ultimate kick in the teeth to the Syrian people. Just weeks ago, a Syrian court sentenced him to death in absentia for war crimes and crimes against humanity, yet Moscow continues to protect his luxury retirement package instead… So messed up! Source: Pravda / Writer: Bri

🇾🇪 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 Daily news recap: The Houthis now claim their missiles can reach the US blockade line in the Gulf of Oman... and see as far as Diego Garcia. They also claim they shot down a Saudi Typhoon fighter jet, and a voice close to the Houthis says their generals have already planned an invasion of three southern Saudi provinces if Riyadh drags outside powers into the war. Meanwhile Iran's missile threat has pushed the US fleet back toward Yemen: "It looks like the Iranians are establishing a trap, a kill box for our fleet." There's no off ramp right now, and Washington needs to build one before a warship pays the price. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸🇷🇺 Washington is now considering letting the shadow fleet back in to bring down oil shipping costs Days after lifting sanctions on Russian diesel, the administration is weighing a license system that would let companies apply to Treasury to move "legal oil" on tankers that were sanctioned for hauling Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan crude. Energy Secretary Chris Wright floated it in a video to the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh, and a US official says the goal is to get more crude and refined products out of the Gulf. The reason is a number: supertanker rates hit $805,000 a day last week, which has priced American crude out of Asia. The problem is another number. Energy Aspects says most of those tankers are old, badly maintained, and already trading anyway, so the move adds maybe a few Hormuz shuttle runs and won't move freight rates, and EU and UK rules still bind the insurers. Meanwhile the US Navy has spent three months blowing up shadow fleet tankers in its Iran blockade. The administration is sanctioning the fleet with one hand and licensing it with the other, which tells you how badly Nov. 3 needs a lower pump price. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniel