🇺🇸🇮🇷 A new war with Iran could spiral out of control in just 72 hours
I've been trying to understand whether Trump could launch one final attack on Iran, declare victory and simply walk away.
So I put that scenario to Professor Robert Pape, who has spent decades studying military strategy and how wars escalate.
His answer made me reconsider the entire situation.
Pape believes we're approaching something resembling the conditions that produced World War I.
Not because the alliances are identical, but because military preparations are creating incentives for countries to strike before their opponents do.
And this time, there are at least four major actors: America, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Imagine Trump launches a three-day bombing campaign against Iran.
Iran retaliates. The Houthis then attack an American warship, calculating that they could be Washington's next target. American sailors are killed.
Suddenly, walking away becomes politically much harder for Trump. Saudi Arabia could also see an opportunity to strike the Houthis before they attack again.
A limited operation has become a regional war, potentially within days.
Pape's warning is that each decision could appear rational to the leader making it, even as the combined result becomes disastrous.
He also raised a longer-term concern: renewed fighting could strengthen militant groups in Yemen and Pakistan, creating security problems that survive long after the initial conflict.
What struck me most was how little this depends on anyone actually wanting a larger war.
Trump might plan a three-day operation. But he cannot plan the decisions everyone else makes on day four.
@ProfessorPape
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