Mario Nawfal

The calm before the storm

🇺🇸 Robert Barnes, who PREDICTED Trump’s 2016 win, says Democrats are heading for a BIG MIDTERM WAVE if Trump’s core voters stay home. He says many voters feel betrayed over Iran, the Epstein files, deportations, and border security. He predicts Democrats could win 53-58 Senate seats, 230-260 House seats, and half the governorships. He calls it a “betrayal environment,” where voters turn out mainly to punish the party they feel let them down. The same voters who put Trump in power could cost Republicans the midterms. Writer: Lucas t.co/kZJoT7HQV5

🇺🇸Trump: “How will the Arab countries feel if we name it the ‘Trump Strait’?” Yeah… I don’t think putting gold letters on the Strait of Hormuz is high on their peace plan. But that’s just me being silly. Next up...an ocean 😲 Writer: Bri t.co/N5DksoygAU

🇺🇸 Trump is now considering naming an ENTIRE OCEAN after himself After getting the Gulf of Mexico renamed the Gulf of America on Google Maps, he says he floated another idea: the TRUMP OCEAN. He asked Google whether they preferred the Atlantic or the Pacific. Their alleged response? “We've had it. That's enough.” I NEED THIS LEVEL OF SELF-LOVE IN MY LIFE 🤣 Writer: Sol t.co/mU1TWmN7sx

🇺🇸Trump: “You're doing better than you've ever done" In the carpet capital, that line rolled out completely flat. Hard to sweep economic reality under the rug in a town that makes them for a living… Writer: Bri t.co/JIs6bIe9B2

🇺🇸🇻🇪 Trump is bragging about how fast the U.S. took down Venezuela. “Venezuela has a strong military, but we hit them with fire and fury. They didn’t know what the hell happened.” This from the same Trump who’s also slamming U.S. for going in, bombing people and leaving. Writer: Daniyal t.co/BRbOyqYphc

🚨🇺🇸 Trump goes through the greatest hits, AGAIN: “You remember a guy named Barack Hussein Obama, terrible president! I call him the ‘divider-in-chief’!” He said this just minutes after claiming he calls every Middle Eastern man Mohammed... 🔥 Writer: Jamie t.co/hpI0NNWDtW

🇺🇸Affordability is just a word people keep hitting Trump with… “Every time something is a little high.” Gas prices surged over 9% in a single month. Overall inflation reaccelerated as crude oil surged past $100 a barrel following continued shocks in the Middle East. Cost-of-living continues to rise. No wonder Americans keep screaming for affordability…it’s not getting any cheaper. Writer: Bri t.co/VojLIc4DVu

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump just called a war that's cost roughly $40 BILLION a “MILITARY EXERCISE.” And that's before counting billions more in ongoing operations and damage to U.S. bases. I'd be TERRIFIED to see what Trump considers an actual war... Writer: Sol t.co/LhEQr8vO1f

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is having second thoughts about Iran. “I might have gone too far with the leaders. I have nobody to talk to.” It’s the second time this week he’s said it. Turns out it’s hard to negotiate a peace deal when the other side’s chairs are all empty. Writer: Daniyal t.co/1Rr8Ci4eim

🇺🇸 Trump is apparently quite pleased with the looks of America's military. “We're allowed to have big strong handsome soldiers now.” Not just strong. Handsome. The Pentagon spends hundreds of billions on military superiority, and Trump is out here making sure the troops are runway-ready. Writer: Oliver t.co/H9r1nwIaZp

🇺🇸 Yeah… he unclassified everything about Iran, alright. Just like he released all of the Epstein files... Writer: Jamie t.co/GTran16cmB

🇺🇸 Trump is slamming America’s old habit of bombing countries and walking away. “We used to go in, bomb people, and then leave. What the hell? We destroyed lives, it cost us a fortune, and we left.” He’s right that it cost a fortune. The Iran war alone has run the Pentagon $45 billion so far. Writer: Daniyal t.co/seLj9j2QuH

🇺🇸Trump says he keeps a much closer eye on gas prices than the guys before him. “Unlike Biden and Obama and these guys, they don’t look at gas pumps, but I do. And I’m looking at the price.” If just looking worked, gas would be free by now. Writer: Daniyal t.co/HaFodUq2dJ

🇺🇸🇸🇻 Trump seems rather pleased with the reputation of El Salvador's notorious mega-prison. He says criminals facing deportation to the country are practically begging not to be sent there. “No, El Salvador! No, no, we don't want to go to El Salvador! That country is doing a tremendous job.” El Salvador's CECOT prison has become one of the most controversial symbols of President Nayib Bukele's war on gangs, with its brutal conditions drawing international criticism. That's exactly the kind of deterrent Trump wants. Writer: Oliver t.co/ZRpiLpj2xV

🇧🇬🇷🇴🇷🇺 Drones are hitting ships in the Black Sea, and Bulgaria wants NATO to step in. A commercial ship was sunk off Bulgaria on Tuesday. Then 2 more ships were hit near Romania, both catching fire. That's 3 ships attacked in just days, right on NATO's doorstep. Bulgaria suspects Russia was behind the attacks, but has no proof yet. Bulgaria has now formally asked NATO to send fighter jets and anti-drone systems, along with extra forces to help protect its territory. It's also planning talks with Romania and Turkey to figure out what to do next. NATO's 32 members will discuss the request next week, while Bulgaria also hopes to join the alliance's anti-drone program by the end of October. The Russia-Ukraine war is already spilling into commercial shipping routes. Now the question is how far NATO is willing to go to protect them. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The PENTAGON PIZZA Index is acting up again Both Papa Johns locations near the Pentagon are reporting unusually high traffic at the same time. And with tensions involving Iran already running high, people are watching Washington's pizza deliveries like they're classified intelligence briefings. The theory is simple: when Pentagon staff work late during a crisis, nearby pizza orders surge. We've reached the point where Americans are checking pizza ovens for signs of World War III. Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The next war with Iran could become something much bigger than Trump intends I spoke with Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson about the growing American military buildup around Iran, and he made a comparison I found particularly disturbing. Europe in 1914. Back then, governments believed they could enter a war, achieve their objectives and return home within months. Instead, they unleashed a conflict that destroyed empires. Wilkerson sees a similar danger developing today, particularly as France reportedly deploys troops to Saudi Arabia and more countries become involved in the Middle East. We discussed Trump's apparent interest in using the MOAB against Iranian targets. Wilkerson argues that these enormous bombs would accomplish very little against Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities. He also doubts the U.S. has enough conventional military capability remaining to force a decisive outcome. That leaves a troubling question. What happens if Trump launches another attack, Iran refuses to concede, and Washington finds itself facing an even worse strategic position? Wilkerson worries that the pressure to escalate could eventually bring nuclear weapons into the equation. And his concern extends beyond Iran. We also discussed Ukraine, where he believes Putin has become increasingly committed to achieving his objectives, making a compromise more difficult as the human and political costs accumulate. What struck me was his broader argument about how wars develop. Leaders enter conflicts believing they can control the outcome. Then the casualties mount, the objectives expand, and accepting anything short of victory becomes politically impossible. Wilkerson fears we're approaching precisely that kind of situation, with nuclear weapons now part of the equation. The danger isn't that anyone necessarily wants a world war. It's that several governments could make decisions that eventually leave them unable to avoid one.

🇺🇸 Trump just said, "President Xi was here last week," but actually, he left nearly a month ago For him, an entire month is basically last week. Things couldn't be going any faster.. I know that feeling 😂 Writer: Lucas t.co/kE91ImykxD

🇨🇦 Vancouver's HOUSING crisis is entering a VERY DANGEROUS phase Court-ordered property listings have climbed toward a 20-year high, with 946 recorded across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley through September. But here's the alarming part. Only 38% have sold, compared with a typical annual rate of around 60%. David Lin points to properties losing enormous amounts of value, including examples of homes falling from roughly $2 million to $1 million in just two years. And behind the pressure is Canada's mortgage renewal system. Homeowners who locked in cheap financing during the pandemic are now confronting higher borrowing costs, sometimes on properties worth considerably less than they paid. That's when a housing correction becomes something far more serious: people who can no longer afford to hold their homes, entering a market where buyers are increasingly hard to find. Source: NYT / Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 THE S&P 500 IS SLIDING And there’s more behind it than one ugly day on Wall Street. Inflation is back at 3.7%, which immediately brings the Fed problem back into the conversation. If prices keep running hot, rate cuts become harder to justify and another hike becomes harder to rule out. Then there’s AI. Investors are starting to look much harder at the enormous amount of money being borrowed and spent to build out the boom. CoreWeave is getting particular attention, while chip stocks are being hammered. Micron and Intel are both down more than 5%. And oil is making everything worse. Brent is getting close to $110 as supply disruptions push prices higher again. So Wall Street suddenly has several problems feeding into each other: expensive energy, inflation refusing to disappear, rates that may have to stay high, and an AI trade that investors are no longer willing to believe in quite so blindly. That’s a nasty combination. Writer: Oliver

Oil flows through Hormuz have largely recovered. Oil prices haven’t. David Lin’s explanation is that the real bottleneck now may be the cost of moving it. Shipping and transit costs remain extremely high, tanker attacks are still happening, and those costs eventually get baked into the price of the oil itself. At the same time, the futures curve still suggests the market does not expect a clean return to cheap oil anytime soon. Brent for next year is still around $80 to $90. So Hormuz reopening is only part of the story. If the route is technically open but still expensive and dangerous to use, the energy shock isn’t really over. @davidlin_TV

🇺🇸 The U.S. budget deficit has hit its highest level in 5 years. Washington spent a record $7.4 trillion over the past year but brought in only $5.4 trillion. That's a nearly $2 trillion hole, $217 billion bigger than last year. And here's the crazy part. Just paying interest on the national debt now costs $1.36 trillion a year. Not paying off the debt, just paying for what it already owes. Trump's tariffs didn't help either. After the Supreme Court struck down a big chunk of them, the government refunded $145 billion, cutting into its tariff revenue. Defense spending also climbed to $917 billion, though officials aren't sure how much of that increase came from the Iran war. The national debt has already crossed $40 trillion. And somehow, Washington keeps finding new ways to spend money it doesn't have. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇨🇦 Vancouver’s housing market is starting to look genuinely ugly. Court-ordered home listings are near multi-decade highs, while far fewer of them are actually selling. And the discounts are no longer small. David Lin points to properties selling dramatically below previous values, including units that went from roughly $2 million to $1 million in just two years. The pressure is coming from the mortgage reset. Canadian borrowers often have to refinance after three or five years, and many are now rolling into much higher rates. That means the housing correction is no longer just about falling prices. It is becoming a forced-selling problem. @davidlin_TV

Brent is back above $100. What worries me more though is that some analysts still think it should eventually fall toward $55. That gap matters. If the fundamentals are supposed to be bearish, yet oil is still trading near wartime levels while we are technically in a quieter phase, then the market may be pricing in something much uglier ahead. The black swan is obvious: A wider U.S.-Iran escalation that pushes Tehran to attack Gulf refineries, ports and other energy infrastructure. Iran still appears to retain substantial missile capability, and that is what makes any ground operation far more dangerous than simply “opening” Hormuz. Oil above $100 may not be the warning. It may be the market telling us the warning has already started. @davidlin_TV

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, AFRICA HAS MORE CATHOLICS THAN EUROPE How remarkable is this? For centuries, Europe sent missionaries across Africa to spread Catholicism. Now the continent that once received those missionaries is becoming one of the Church's most important centers. The Vatican's latest figures put Africa at 288.3 million Catholics, just ahead of Europe's 287.2 million. But the growth is where it gets really interesting. Africa added 7.6 million Catholics in a single year. Europe added fewer than a million. And Africa is now the only continent where both the number of seminarians preparing for the priesthood and religious sisters are increasing. There's something quite extraordinary about that, historically. The Catholic Church spent centuries expanding outward from Europe. Now its future is increasingly being shaped in Africa. Source: Vatican News / Writer: Oliver

🇭🇹 Erik Prince is DEPLOYING Blackwater in an operation against HAITI’S GANGS, and says it's CHEAPER than the UN sending units The operation uses drones, air support, and contractors alongside Haiti’s government, claiming over 2,000 drone strikes in a year. Gangs still control much of Port-au-Prince, though the UN says their expansion has halted. Prince says the operation costs less than a UN force, with his company earning a cut of customs revenue if smuggling drops. If the gangs remain strong enough, he still has work. Writer: Lucas t.co/VUPRuevrfT

🇺🇸 DIESEL FUTURES ARE SURGING And the supply crisis behind them could be even more troubling than $110 oil. New York Harbor diesel futures have jumped above $4.72 a gallon. But this isn't simply crude oil getting more expensive. The world is running short of refined diesel. Ukrainian strikes have damaged Russian refineries, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have restricted shipments, and limited refining capacity is making it harder to replace lost supplies. American inventories are also shrinking. The latest EIA figures show U.S. distillate stocks falling by 2.5 million barrels in a single week, leaving supplies 12% below last year's levels. East Coast inventories are down more than 22%. And winter is approaching, when diesel must also compete with heating oil for supply. That's why this matters far beyond energy markets. Oil makes headlines. But a diesel shortage can push costs through the entire economy, even if crude prices stop rising. Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 FIRST PHOTO emerges of the 16-YEAR-OLD suspect behind the DEADLY OREGON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHOOTING John J. Griffin II has been identified by law enforcement sources as the gunman who killed three children, aged 5, 8 and 11, and a teacher at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend. The teenager reportedly used a shotgun purchased by his mother to force his way through locked school doors. Two others were critically injured. Griffin was ultimately shot and killed by an armed civilian who intervened during the attack. Investigators are still trying to establish his motive. Source: NY Post / Writer: Oliver