THE IRAN TRAP
Aipac - 2nd most powerful lobby in USA
Pensioners most powerful
America is addicted to empire
Main conflict in middle east is between saudi and iran
Iran supports hezbollah and hamas
Iran represents threat to Saudi’s existence
Trump is the champion of Israel of Saudi
Jared Kushner friends with MBS and Netanyahu
Trump’s son in law, married to Ivanka
Netanyahu stays in the master bedroom, Kushner stays in basement
Trump withdrew from Iran nuclear deal, which would have been peace
Trump moved US embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem
Trump ignored the fact Saudi killed journalists
Jan 2020 Trump ordered assassination of Solemani
Solemani Iran military commander
US military very different from 30 years ago
In 2003 US changed military action to shock and awe
No longer following old principles
Air supremacies
Intelligence agencies
Hubris in American military
Operation Prosperity Guardian
Houthis: military operation in Yemen “pirates”
US couldn’t do anything against Houthis pirates
America lost war against Houthis in red sea
Iran wants war with US out of anger of alliance with Israel
Angry that US backed Iran police state
Angry that US protects Saudi
Angry Trump killed general Solemani
Nikki Haley in Trump admin pushing Iran war
Iran wants to provoke US into invading Iran
Hubris definition: excessive confidence
US narrative: Iranian people “want democracy” “sick of the ayatollah”
US must protect the protestors with democracy
(proven by former CIA claiming Iran protests were run by CIA/Mossad)
Iran is working on developing a nuclear bomb - narrative for 10 years
Hezbollah disrupting trade and oil, strait of hormuz
Iran connects oil trade to China Japan South Korea (also most of EU)
“We must go to war to protect global prosperity” (aka oil)
“We have obligation to protect our middle eastern allies” (we ignore Qatar)
US supporting rogue military groups to destroy Iranian regime
US defeated Sadam Hussein in 2003 in 3 weeks
To prove US military is the greatest military US will defeat Iran in 2 weeks
Straight of Hormuz: USS Gerald R Ford 13$B super carrier ship patrols
Ensures oil shipping is safe
America controls the sky - complete air supremacy
300,000 troops in iran
100,000 US troops ready to strike Iran
Jiang believes Iran defeats US
Surrounding Iran is all mountains
To deploy US troops you need to air drop them
No resupply lines
REASONS JIANG ARGUES IRAN DEFEATS US
90m Iranians, need 3-4m troops to conquer
Easy to shoot down airplanes because of Iranian mountains
American troops would essentially be hostages in Iran
Americans hated by Iran because Americans supported the Shah
Iran hates America because of what happened to Iraq
Iran won’t submit to a foreign conqueror
Iran believes America is the great satan and they are loyal to Allah
Greeks believed the worst thing is Hubris
Hubris is the arrogance of God
Trump says Iran one month from developing Nuke, without any proof
USA will just simply Nuke Iran (ie pearl harbor) Iran won’t
Historical analysis:
415 BCE in Athens
Brutal war Athens vs Sparta
To win against Sparta Athens wants to invade Sciliy
Would cost 500k troops, and 100 ships
Athenians didn’t think about resupply
Never fought a war of that magnitude
Athenian army was wiped out in Sicily
Caused the end of Athenian army (empire)
Athenians were addicted to empire and had hubris
Vietnam : 500k US soldiers in Vietnam destroying everything
Also getting destroyed
50k American troops dead
1971 pentagon papers released
American involvement since 1950
“Mission creep” war slowly escalating overtime
American leadership understood this war was unwinnable
Americans stayed for credibility
America dropped more bombs in Vietnam than WW2
3 ways to win a war:
Clear strategy
Adaptation
Will to fight
(US had none of this in Vietnam)
3 million Vietnamese civilians killed in the war
Sunk cost fallacy
Same reason house always wins in casino, you can’t leave
Ukraine only method of success vs Russia is retreat
Outrun Russia's supply lines
Zelensky fell to sunk cost fallacy because he was an actor
Zelensky only understood tv appearances did not want to look weak
Trump is like Zelensky only cares about optics
Trump is a television actor
Trump will order land invasion of Iran because it looks good on TV
NATO helping Ukrainian military against Russia
NATO special forces directing military strikes against Russia
UK and France talked about conscription to fight Russia
GAME THEORY:
US wants to topple Iran
Iran wants to kill Americans
Iran wants to force US land invasion
Israel optimal outcome: US and Iran lose and Israel controls Middle East
Saudi Arabia very easy to topple because of all the oil fields
Trump will respond with nukes if they can’t extract 100k troops
Russia says if US nukes Iran, Russia will use nukes
Putin says you cannot use nuclear weapons
For every 1 ship USA can build, China can build 232 ships: Pentagon
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